How would you feel if all the skills, knowledge and talent you learned and developed to be a success in your work, your chosen field of endeavor - became obsolete? From 1971 until 1977 I worked for a promotional industry supplier producing specialized printing, decals and other printed specialties. Then in 1977, I opened a commercial printing company that I operated until 1991. I created the technical layouts using āpen & inkā, set type with cumbersome equipment, shot negatives in the darkroom, stripped the negatives to masking sheets and burned printing plates to mount on the presses. Virtually all those skills are now obsolete.
Computers and intelligent machines utilizing AI (Artificial Intelligence) have not only taken over these tasks but they do them better and faster and at less cost.
Six years ago Oxford University did a study that looked at the future of jobs in the US. Their conclusion was that in 20 years 47% of the jobs that existed at that time would be eliminated. Now six years into that projection with 14 more to go it appears that they may have under calculated!
Some people believe that new jobs that donāt exist now will offset the loss of jobs to technology, but in the past six years, that has not been the case. The top 10 in-demand jobs all require specialized training and fully half are in the healthcare field. The list includes software developer, construction, financial advisor, home health aide, IT security, medical service manager, nurse practitioner, personal care aid, physical therapist and truck driver.
Eight of these jobs are currently in the crosshairs of technology and likely will be eliminated. What does all this have to do with the promotional advertising industry? Well, we have been a somewhat focused B2B industry creating marketing promotions businesses use to build awareness, motivate, recognize and reward their workers and, in some cases, communicate with customers and prospects. This Oxford study suggests that for what we do, increasing our focus on B2C might be a good idea.
While the population growth of the US continues to decline, the number of consumers is so large that B2C programs have a great lifespan. In the business sector, however, technology is replacing workers and affecting entire industries. What Uber did to the taxi business and eventually to trucking, healthcare is starting to feel the disruption now. With inexpensive cameras and connected sensors, it is no longer necessary for a medical care worker to be with the patient as much as in the past.
As a professional in the specialty marketing/advertising business, identifying trends that will show you what businesses are likely to fade away and what will develop or grow, can become your roadmap for business success. List the businesses and workers in your community that are unlikely to be eliminated such as uniform services (fire, police), legal services, and trades like landscaping, remodeling, home, and commercial maintenance to name just a few.
Other businesses like financial services, fresh and packaged foods, most retail, education, auto repair and more are vulnerable. Some are already feeling the effects today. While 14 more years seems like a long time, businesses that are feeling the pressure of declining business and increased competition from a more technically oriented business will need to conserve resources and the cost of promotional advertising is always an early victim. Starting to adjust your client portfolio now will allow you to be a bit more selective since many others will not be as well informed as you are.
One last word about the healthcare industry, it will continue to grow and have a strong need for workers for about the next ten years. Then there will be a sharp decline taking place as the oldest of our population pass on and a healthier younger group (or two) hit the leading edge of what we have always called āseniorsā. So donāt be running away from these clients just yet. Healthcare represents a significant market for promotional advertising for quite a while. Just be aware of any shifts when they occur and you will be successful well into the next economic chapter.
Gregg Emmer is chief marketing officer and vice president at Kaeser & Blair, Inc. He has more than 40 years experience in marketing and the promotional products industry. His outside consultancy provides marketing, public relations and business planning consulting to a wide range of other businesses and has been a useful knowledge base for K&B Dealers. Contact Gregg at gemmer@kaeser-blair.com.